An Ecumenical Ministry in the Parish of St Patrick's Catholic Church In San Diego USA


Monday, October 9, 2023

Can betting save the world?

A paperback book titled “Thinking Physics” lies on a small round table. A disc that can be spun, divided into colorful sections, stands behind it. Between them is a sticker of a green, octopus-like creature with many eyes. Items from the Manifest conference, organized by a forecasting start-up. Jason Henry for The New York Times

Can betting save the world?

A coterie of tech insiders believe we can fix much of what ails society with “prediction markets.”

These people believe the world is full of bad information. They think that prediction markets — online platforms where users can wager on future events — offer a better way to search for truth, rewarding those who are good at forecasting by allowing them to make money.

Any question about the future can be wagered on, like “Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?” or “Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023?” Proponents of these markets, which at the moment use fake money, believe that if enough people, with enough information behind them, make enough bets, markets will reveal something useful about the future.

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